The Los Angeles Dodgers spent the opening night of the 2026 MLB Draft sitting on their hands. Thanks to massive offseason spending, their first pick got pushed all the way down to number 40. They didn't have a second, third, fifth, or sixth-round selection either. When you only have one shot at an elite prospect in the early rounds, you cannot afford to play it safe.
You go for the absolute highest ceiling available. For a different view, read: this related article.
That is exactly what Andrew Friedman's front office did by grabbing high school shortstop Bo Lowrance. The 18-year-old out of Christ Church Episcopal High School in South Carolina wasn't supposed to be there at 40. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 21st best prospect in the entire class. FanGraphs had him all the way up at number seven.
Most teams under draft penalties look for low-risk, fast-moving college players. The Dodgers did the exact opposite. They took a towering, 6-foot-5 left-handed hitter with massive raw power who might not see Dodger Stadium until 2030. It is a bold, loud statement. It shows they trust their player development machine more than anyone else in baseball. Further insight on this trend has been shared by NBC Sports.
The Freddie Freeman Blueprint Is Real
The moment Lowrance was picked, the comparisons started flying. It is easy to see why. He is a massive left-handed hitter with a long, smooth swing. He openly admits he models his approach at the plate after Freddie Freeman.
That isn't just standard teenager bravado. The physical mechanics back it up.
Lowrance has a naturally long path to the ball because of his long arms. Usually, that is a death sentence for high school hitters facing professional velocity. They get jammed. They swing through high fastballs. But Lowrance makes up for his length with insanely quick hand acceleration. He posted exit velocities in the triple digits at the MLB Draft Combine.
The kid hits everything hard.
Right now, he sprays the ball to all fields. He hit .435 with 12 home runs during his senior high school season by letting the ball travel deep into the zone. He isn't a dead-pull power hitter. He uses the whole park. That is where the Corey Seager and Matt Olson comparisons come from. He has that rare ability to drive an outside slider off the left-field wall while retaining enough bat speed to turn on an inside fastball.
Amateur scouting director Zach Fitzpatrick tried to downplay the Freeman hype on his post-draft media call. He said the front office didn't explicitly scout him as the next Freddie. But he grinned when admitting that if Lowrance becomes even a fraction of that kind of hitter, the Dodgers hit a home run.
Fixing the Pull Side Launch Angle
If Lowrance is so good, why did he slide to pick 40?
The answer lies in his batted-ball profile. He doesn't pull the ball in the air very often. He hits a ton of line drives and hard grounders to the opposite field. In the modern game, teams want their 6-foot-5 monsters lifting the ball to the pull side. If Lowrance was already doing that regularly on the showcase circuit, he would have been a top-five pick.
The Dodgers see this as an opportunity. They love buying low on elite physical traits and fixing the launch angle later.
Look at what they are doing in the minor leagues right now with Josue De Paula. They took a young hitter with incredible feel for contact and gradually taught him how to get around on the ball and lift it. Lowrance is the exact same project. He is currently 200 pounds, but his frame can easily hold another 20 to 25 pounds of muscle.
He needs to get stronger. He knows it too.
During his press conference, Lowrance was incredibly mature about his physical development. He talked about finding the balance between adding bulk and maintaining the athleticism needed to stay in the dirt. The Dodgers won't rush this. They will spend the next two years in Arizona and low-A ball transforming his raw bat speed into 30-home-run power.
Finding a Permanent Position on the Diamond
Let's be completely honest about his future on defense. Lowrance is listed as a shortstop. He played shortstop in South Carolina. He will probably start his professional career at shortstop.
He will not finish it there.
Players who are 6-foot-5 do not stay at shortstop in the major leagues unless their name is Oneil Cruz. Lowrance has decent athleticism, but scouts rate his speed as average. He has a 50-grade run tool. His first-step quickness is fine for high school, but major league baserunners will blow right past his range.
The good news is his arm is a weapon. It easily grades out as a 55 or 60.
That arm strength makes him a perfect candidate for third base. If his frame fills out the way everyone expects, he could easily become a plus defender at the hot corner. He has the soft hands and the reflexes to handle it.
If third base doesn't work out, first base or right field are the obvious backup plans. The Dodgers farm system is already completely loaded with outfield prospects. That is why targeting an infielder was so crucial with this pick. They needed high-end talent in the dirt. Lowrance provides that flexibility. Whether he ends up replacing an aging Freeman at first or taking over third base, his bat will dictate his position.
Why the Draft Penalties Forced This Move
To truly understand this pick, you have to look at the financial mess the Dodgers created for themselves this winter. They went all-in. They signed elite closer Edwin Díaz and superstar right fielder Kyle Tucker. Both players had declined qualifying offers from their previous teams.
That triggered massive penalties.
The Dodgers lost their second and third-round picks for Tucker. They lost their fifth and sixth-round picks for Díaz. On top of that, their payroll blew past the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax. That automatically moved their first-round pick back 10 spots.
They went into the draft with a heavily depleted bonus pool. They couldn't afford to spread their money around to five or six decent players. They had to push all their chips to the middle of the table on one guy.
There was a lot of industry chatter that Los Angeles would target a college pitcher. Someone who could sign below slot value and move quickly through the system to help the big league club. Passing on those safe college arms for a high schooler from a tiny private school in South Carolina is a massive gamble.
It proves the Dodgers aren't drafting for depth. They are drafting for superstars. They looked at Lowrance and saw a top-10 talent who slipped because of signability fears and a quiet spring market for high school hitters. They capitalized on it.
The Next Steps for Bo Lowrance
Now the real work begins. The Dodgers have to finalize his contract and get him down to Camelback Ranch. Because they have so few picks in this draft, they can afford to give Lowrance a slightly above-slot bonus to ensure he foregoes his college commitment.
Once he signs, expect a slow burn.
Don't expect to see Lowrance climbing the minor league ranks at lightning speed. High school hitters with long levers take time to adjust to professional breaking balls. He is going to strike out. He is going to have months where he looks completely lost at the plate while trying to implement the swing changes the coaching staff wants.
Keep an eye on his pull percentage in the box scores next summer. That will be the true indicator of his progress. If he starts lifting the ball to right field while maintaining his high contact rates, the rest of the league is going to regret letting him fall to the end of the first round.
Get familiar with the name. It is pronounced Low-Rance, not Lawrence. You will be hearing it for a very long time in Los Angeles.
